Planning your first production run.
The first run is where a brand becomes real and where most of the cash goes. This guide covers how to split quantity across styles, colours and sizes, how to build the timeline backwards from launch, and what to do with what does not sell.
A first run is an experiment with a budget. Its job is not to maximise profit; it is to find out which of your assumptions were right while spending as little as possible proving it.
That means fewer styles than you want, fewer colours than you planned, a size curve you can defend, and a timeline with slack in it. Everything below follows from those four ideas.
See the full-package process →At a glance
1. Decide the shape of the run first
Before any quantity is chosen, decide the shape: how many styles, how many colours per style, and how deep each goes. Those three numbers multiply, and founders routinely discover their budget three times over by adding one more style and one more colour at the same time.
A workable first shape is three to five styles, two colours each, at the minimum depth per colour. At MOQ from 50 pieces per style per colour that is a modest total commitment while still giving you a full size run on each variant, which is what generates usable data.
- Styles times colours times depth equals your commitment
- Three to five styles, two colours, is a sound first shape
- Depth per colour is what generates sell-through data
- Add colours in the reorder, not the first run
2. Split quantity across styles honestly
Not every style deserves the same quantity. Pick one hero, the piece your brand is about, and give it the largest share. Give supporting styles a smaller share, and give any experimental piece the minimum.
Resist the instinct to even the split out. An even split feels fair but it guarantees that your best style sells out early and your weakest ties up the same cash. If you genuinely cannot say which style is the hero, that is a signal to cut the range down until you can.
- One hero takes the largest share
- Supports take a middle share, experiments take the minimum
- An even split guarantees both a stockout and a leftover
- If you cannot name the hero, cut a style
3. Keep colours tight
Every colour is a separate production run with its own fabric lot, its own setup and its own minimum. Two colours of one style is nearly twice the commitment of one, not a slightly bigger version of it. Colour is also the variable customers are least forgiving about and founders are least able to predict.
Start with a core neutral that will sell steadily and one signature colour that carries the brand. Add a third only when the first two have proved themselves. This is the single easiest place to protect cash on a first run.
- Each colour is its own run, its own lot, its own minimum
- One dependable core, one signature colour
- Earn the third colour with sell-through data
- Colour errors are the most common source of leftovers
4. Build a size curve you can defend
With sizes split freely within a colour, you control the curve completely, which means you also own the mistakes. Without your own sales history, weight the curve to the middle sizes and taper towards the extremes, because that is where most demand sits in most ranges.
Adjust for your product and audience. Oversized styles pull demand towards the smaller end because customers size down into the fit. Fitted athleisure follows the body more closely. Whatever you choose, record sell-through by size from day one, because after one run your own data beats any general rule.
- Weight to the middle sizes, taper to the extremes
- Oversized fits shift demand towards smaller sizes
- Record sell-through by size from the first day of trading
- Replace the assumed curve with your real curve at reorder
5. Plan the timeline backwards from launch
Start at the launch date and subtract. Subtract the time you need for photography, listings and marketing after stock arrives. Subtract customs clearance and inbound delivery. Subtract freight. Subtract bulk production at 25–55 days. Subtract sampling, at 10–22 days per round, for two or three rounds. Subtract tech pack and fabric sourcing before that.
The date you land on is when work must start, and it is almost always earlier than founders expect. Add a slack week somewhere visible rather than distributing optimism across every stage. Then pick which of the two is fixed, the launch date or the specification, because when something slips you will have to move one of them.
- Count backwards from launch, not forwards from today
- Include photography and listing time after arrival
- Two to three sampling rounds, not one
- Add explicit slack, and decide in advance what gives
6. Budget for more than the invoice
The factory invoice is not the cost of the run. Add sampling, which is spent before any saleable unit exists. Add freight, duty and clearance. Add labels, hangtags and packaging if they are bought separately. Add photography, which is often the second largest line and is routinely forgotten.
Then hold a buffer. A sensible buffer covers an extra sampling round, a freight cost that comes in above estimate, and a small quantity of replacement units for damage and returns. A run that consumes every available pound leaves nothing to reorder the style that works, which is the worst possible outcome of a successful first drop.
- Sampling, freight, duty, packaging and photography are all real lines
- Hold budget back for an extra sampling round
- Keep a reserve for replacements and returns
- Above all, keep reorder money: selling out with no cash is a failure
7. Decide now what happens to leftovers
Some units will not sell, and that is a normal outcome rather than a mistake. What turns it into a problem is having no plan, so the stock sits and quietly becomes a write-off. Choose the route in advance: bundle slow pieces with strong sellers, hold seasonal items for the next relevant season, re-shoot and relist with different styling, run a controlled discount window, or use units for seeding, gifting and replacements.
Attach a date to the rule. Something like anything below the target sell-through at ninety days moves to the clearance plan turns an open-ended worry into a scheduled decision, and it prevents you discounting the whole range to solve a problem with one style.
- Plan the clearance route before the stock lands
- Set a date, not a mood, for the markdown decision
- Bundle rather than broadly discount where you can
- Keep a small reserve for replacements and seeding
The decisions behind the quantity
Six choices, made in this order, produce a first run you can learn from.
Shape
Styles times colours times depth. Decide all three together, because they multiply rather than add.
Style split
A hero with the largest share, supports in the middle, experiments at the minimum. Never an even split.
Colour count
One dependable core plus one signature. The third colour is earned with data, not chosen on instinct.
Size curve
Weighted to the middle, tapered at the extremes, adjusted for how the fit is worn.
Timeline
Counted backwards from launch, through photography, freight, bulk at 25–55 days and sampling at 10–22 days a round.
Budget
Invoice plus sampling, freight, duty, packaging and photography, plus a buffer and reorder money held back.
The aim of a first run is not to sell out. It is to learn which style, which colour and which sizes to back with real money on the second run.
Common questions
As few as will teach you something. Three to five styles in two colours each, at our minimum of 50 pieces per style per colour with sizes split freely, gives a full size run on every variant without committing cash to unproven styles.
No. Back your hero style with the largest share, give supporting styles a middle share and give experimental pieces the minimum. An even split reliably produces both an early stockout and a leftover.
Weight towards the middle sizes and taper to the extremes, then adjust for the fit. Oversized styles pull demand towards smaller sizes. Record sell-through by size from day one and use your own curve at reorder.
Count backwards: photography and listings, clearance and delivery, freight, bulk at 25–55 days, two or three sampling rounds at 10–22 days each, and sourcing before that. For most first runs that puts the start several months before launch.
Sampling, freight, duty and clearance, labels and packaging bought separately, photography, and a buffer for an extra sampling round. Hold reorder money back as well, so a style that sells can be repeated.
Decide the route before the stock lands: bundling with strong sellers, holding for a season, re-shooting and relisting, a controlled discount window, or seeding and gifting. Attach a date to the decision so it happens on schedule.
Plan the first run with the factory in the room.
Send us your styles, colours and target launch date. We will work the timeline backwards with you and quote the quantities that make sense.